Victor Davis Hanson argues that the United States is not ensnared in a “Thucydides Trap” with China, countering the notion that a preventive war is inevitable as a response to a rising power. Instead, he asserts that America maintains significant advantages over China in various critical areas .
The concept of the “Thucydides Trap,” popularized by political scientist Graham Allison, suggests that established powers often engage in preventive wars against emerging rivals due to fear of losing their dominance . This theory draws parallels between ancient Greece and contemporary geopolitics,particularly the relationship between the U.S. and China . However,Hanson critiques this framework,noting that Thucydides himself left his historical accounts unfinished and offered conflicting analyses.
Hanson emphasizes the distinct differences between the political and military systems of Sparta and Athens, which contributed to their conflicts beyond mere fear of rivalry. He points out that historical narrative often overlooks the fact that established powers,like Sparta, typically emerge victorious in conflicts. For instance, the British Royal Navy's dominance allowed Britain to thwart Hitler's plans during World War II,while the United States decisively defeated Japan in Pacific War and outlasted the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Moreover,Hanson argues that it is not uncommon for emerging powers to initiate conflicts with established nations, often leading to their own downfall. He cites examples of Germany,Japan,and the Soviet Union, all of which faced defeat after instigating hostilities against the U.S. In contrast, he notes that rivalries between established and emerging powers do not always result in war. The U.S. replaced the British Empire as the global leader without direct conflict,and European nations accepted the rise of postwar West Germany without military engagement.
Hanson also challenges the applicability of “Thucydides Trap” to the current U.S.-China dynamic. He argues that while China is often viewed as an ascendant power, it is currently facing significant challenges that hinder its rise. In key areas such as energy production,food security,and military capabilities,the U.S . continues to outpace China . This disparity diminishes the likelihood of a preventive war,as both nations are nuclear powers with a vested interest in avoiding catastrophic conflict .
Ultimately,Hanson concludes that the historical precedent does not support the inevitability of war between asymmetrical rivals. He maintains that the U.S. can effectively manage its relationship with a weaker China through deterrence,strategic alliances, and diplomacy. The balance of power, he argues,remains firmly in favor of the United States, allowing for the prevention of potential conflicts.
Victor Davis Hanson is a noted fellow at the Center for American Greatness and a historian at Stanford’s Hoover Institution.
